Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Carolina Panthers 4th & 6 at the 76

Carolina Panthers 7 – Denver Broncos 21

(8:28) (Punt formation) 10-J.Hekker pass incomplete short left to 42-S.Franklin.

The Three Options

GO -2.46 EP

What Happened

39% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 70, worth +0.92 EP
61% chance to fail: Denver Broncos takes over around their own 76, worth -4.61 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (93 yards).

Chose GO Model wanted PUNT instead — cost +0.56 EP