Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Carolina Panthers 4th & 9 at the 69

Carolina Panthers 7 – Denver Broncos 7

What Actually Happened

(10:06) 10-J.Hekker punts 53 yards to DEN 16, Center-44-J.Jansen. 19-M.Mims to DEN 24 for 8 yards (49-J.Rhattigan; 53-C.Cherelus). CAR-84-F.Franks was injured during the play. PENALTY on DEN-43-K.Smith, Offensive Holding, 8 yards, enforced at DEN 16.

The Three Options

GO -2.12 EP

32% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 60, worth +1.79 EP
68% chance to fail: Denver Broncos takes over around their own 69, worth -3.94 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (86 yards).

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model