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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Carolina Panthers 4th & 2 at the 51

Carolina Panthers 7 – Denver Broncos 14

What Actually Happened

(4:46) (Shotgun) 9-B.Young pass short left to 6-M.Sanders to CAR 48 for -1 yards (2-P.Surtain).

The Three Options

GO +0.14 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 54% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 49, worth +2.71 EP
  • 46% chance to fail: Denver Broncos takes over around their own 51, worth -2.89 EP
KICK -1.56 EP
  • 30% chance to make a 68-yard field goal: 3 points, then Denver Broncos takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.50 EP
  • 70% chance to miss: Denver Broncos takes over around their own 49, worth -2.89 EP
PUNT -0.58 EP
  • Denver Broncos would take over around their own 14, worth -0.58 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model