Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Carolina Panthers 4th & 9 at the 69

Carolina Panthers 7 – Denver Broncos 21

(:57) 10-J.Hekker punts 44 yards to DEN 25, Center-44-J.Jansen, fair catch by 19-M.Mims.

The Three Options

GO -1.29 EP

32% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 60, worth +1.50 EP
68% chance to fail: Denver Broncos takes over around their own 69, worth -2.59 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (86 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model