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Seattle Seahawks

HC Mike Macdonald
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Atlanta Falcons

HC Raheem Morris
Sunday 2024-10-20 · 13:00 Mercedes-Benz Stadium, Atlanta US 🏟 Dome Spread 3.0 O/U 51.5

Win Probability

SEA
46.5%
ATL
53.5%
🏟 Dome

Confidence: <strong>coin flip</strong> Bands are honesty-checked against held-out seasons, not a feeling about this game — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Key Insights

  • ATL defense: +0.072 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (24th in the league)
  • Indoors — weather neutralised
  • SEA offense: +0.021 EPA/play over its last 8 games (15th in the league)
  • Kirk Cousins (ATL): +0.120 EPA/dropback in prior starts
  • SEA defense: +0.082 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (25th in the league)
  • SEA on 3 more days rest than ATL

Predicted Final Score

SEA 24
–
ATL 25
Projected margin: ATL by 1 Projected total: 49

Typical error on unseen games: ±10.2 pts on margin, ±10.7 pts on total (held-out 2025). Treat this as a range, not a prediction to the point — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Injury Report — Week 7

SEA

Tre Brown CB Out Ankle
Stone Forsythe T Out Hand
Tariq Woolen CB Out Ankle
Jerrick Reed S Out Knee
Kenneth Walker RB Questionable Illness

ATL

Lorenzo Carter LB Out Concussion
Troy Andersen LB Out Knee
Antonio Hamilton CB Questionable Back
Justin Simmons S Questionable Hamstring

Pulled fresh for 2024 week 7 specifically, not a cached snapshot — this changes every week as new reports come in.

Actual Result

SEA 34
–
ATL 14

Prediction missed by 21 pts on margin, 1 pts on total.

Scoring Summary

  • Q1 10:09 FG SEA (10:09) 5-J.Myers 38 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-41-C.Stoll, Holder-4-M.Dickson. SEA 3 – ATL 0
  • Q2 09:59 TD SEA (9:59) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 9-K.Walker right tackle for 20 yards, TOUCHDOWN. SEA 9 – ATL 0
  • Q2 05:22 TD ATL (5:22) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 7-B.Robinson right tackle for 5 yards, TOUCHDOWN. SEA 10 – ATL 6
  • Q2 00:10 TD SEA (:10) (Shotgun) 7-G.Smith pass deep middle to 14-D.Metcalf for 31 yards, TOUCHDOWN. SEA 16 – ATL 7
  • Q3 07:47 TD ATL (7:47) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 18-K.Cousins pass short right to 5-D.London for 5 yards, TOUCHDOWN. SEA 17 – ATL 13
  • Q3 03:23 TD SEA (3:23) (Shotgun) 7-G.Smith pass deep right to 9-K.Walker for 17 yards, TOUCHDOWN. SEA 23 – ATL 14
  • Q4 12:59 TD SEA (12:59) (Shotgun) 18-K.Cousins sacked at ATL 45 for -7 yards (53-B.Mafe). FUMBLES (53-B.Mafe) [53-B.Mafe], RECOVERED by SEA-58-D.Hall at ATL 36. 58-D.Hall for 36 yards, TOUCHDOWN. SEA 30 – ATL 14
  • Q4 07:15 FG SEA (7:15) 5-J.Myers 59 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-41-C.Stoll, Holder-4-M.Dickson. SEA 34 – ATL 14

Fourth-Down Decisions

  • Q1 SEA 4th & 17 at the 20
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 24% p(FG) 92%

    (10:09) 5-J.Myers 38 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-41-C.Stoll, Holder-4-M.Dickson.

  • Q1 ATL 4th & 7 at the 53
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 40% p(FG) 29%

    (7:44) 13-B.Pinion punts 41 yards to SEA 12, Center-49-L.McCullough, fair catch by 33-D.Williams.

  • Q1 SEA 4th & 17 at the 49
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 27% p(FG) 39%

    (2:47) 4-M.Dickson punts 37 yards to ATL 12, Center-41-C.Stoll, out of bounds.

  • Q2 ATL 4th & 7 at the 36
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 38% p(FG) 70%

    (12:48) 6-Y.Koo 54 yard field goal is No Good, Wide Left, Center-49-L.McCullough, Holder-13-B.Pinion.

  • Q2 ATL 4th & 3 at the 59
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 55%

    (1:20) 13-B.Pinion punts 45 yards to SEA 14, Center-49-L.McCullough. 33-D.Williams to SEA 32 for 18 yards (89-C.Woerner).

  • Q3 ATL 4th & 1 at the 5
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 66% p(FG) 98%

    (7:47) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 18-K.Cousins pass short right to 5-D.London for 5 yards, TOUCHDOWN.

  • Q3 SEA 4th & 1 at the 44
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 71% p(FG) 51%

    (5:03) 26-Z.Charbonnet up the middle to ATL 37 for 7 yards (24-A.Terrell).

  • Q3 ATL 4th & 13 at the 73
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 33%

    (1:52) 13-B.Pinion punts 47 yards to SEA 26, Center-49-L.McCullough, fair catch by 33-D.Williams.

  • Q3 SEA 4th & 7 at the 64
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 42%

    (:17) 4-M.Dickson punts 41 yards to ATL 23, Center-41-C.Stoll, fair catch by 26-A.Williams.

  • Q4 SEA 4th & 5 at the 40
    Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.50 EP
    p(convert) 44% p(FG) 61%

    (7:15) 5-J.Myers 59 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-41-C.Stoll, Holder-4-M.Dickson.

  • Q4 ATL 4th & 4 at the 64
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 51%

    (6:32) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 18-K.Cousins pass short right to 5-D.London pushed ob at ATL 48 for 12 yards (21-D.Witherspoon) [55-D.Jones].

  • Q4 SEA 4th & 2 at the 55 late-game
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.93 EP
    p(convert) 62%

    (3:44) 4-M.Dickson punts 42 yards to ATL 13, Center-41-C.Stoll, fair catch by 26-A.Williams.