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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Atlanta Falcons 4th & 1 at the 5

Atlanta Falcons 7 – Seattle Seahawks 17

What Actually Happened

(7:47) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 18-K.Cousins pass short right to 5-D.London for 5 yards, TOUCHDOWN.

The Three Options

GO +4.08 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 66% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 4, worth +5.99 EP
  • 34% chance to fail: Seattle Seahawks takes over around their own 5, worth +0.37 EP
KICK +1.76 EP
  • 98% chance to make a 22-yard field goal: 3 points, then Seattle Seahawks takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.80 EP
  • 2% chance to miss: Seattle Seahawks takes over around their own 21, worth -0.55 EP
PUNT +0.11 EP
  • Seattle Seahawks would take over around their own 11, worth +0.11 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model