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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Atlanta Falcons 4th & 3 at the 59

Atlanta Falcons 7 – Seattle Seahawks 10

What Actually Happened

(1:20) 13-B.Pinion punts 45 yards to SEA 14, Center-49-L.McCullough. 33-D.Williams to SEA 32 for 18 yards (89-C.Woerner).

The Three Options

GO -0.14 EP
Model's Pick
  • 55% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 56, worth +2.11 EP
  • 45% chance to fail: Seattle Seahawks takes over around their own 59, worth -2.88 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (76 yards).

PUNT -0.40 EP
What Happened
  • Seattle Seahawks would take over around their own 18, worth -0.40 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model