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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Seattle Seahawks 4th & 5 at the 40

Seattle Seahawks 31 – Atlanta Falcons 14

What Actually Happened

(7:15) 5-J.Myers 59 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-41-C.Stoll, Holder-4-M.Dickson.

The Three Options

GO +0.54 EP
Model's Pick
  • 44% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 35, worth +3.60 EP
  • 56% chance to fail: Atlanta Falcons takes over around their own 40, worth -1.90 EP
KICK +0.04 EP
What Happened
  • 61% chance to make a 57-yard field goal: 3 points, then Atlanta Falcons takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.59 EP
  • 39% chance to miss: Atlanta Falcons takes over around their own 49, worth -2.42 EP
PUNT -0.52 EP
  • Atlanta Falcons would take over around their own 11, worth -0.52 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.50 EP