Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Atlanta Falcons 4th & 13 at the 73

Atlanta Falcons 14 – Seattle Seahawks 24

(1:52) 13-B.Pinion punts 47 yards to SEA 26, Center-49-L.McCullough, fair catch by 33-D.Williams.

The Three Options

GO -2.13 EP

33% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 60, worth +2.12 EP
67% chance to fail: Seattle Seahawks takes over around their own 73, worth -4.19 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (90 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model