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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Atlanta Falcons 4th & 7 at the 53

Atlanta Falcons 0 – Seattle Seahawks 3

What Actually Happened

(7:44) 13-B.Pinion punts 41 yards to SEA 12, Center-49-L.McCullough, fair catch by 33-D.Williams.

The Three Options

GO -0.33 EP
  • 40% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 46, worth +3.22 EP
  • 60% chance to fail: Seattle Seahawks takes over around their own 53, worth -2.70 EP
KICK -1.12 EP
  • 29% chance to make a 70-yard field goal: 3 points, then Seattle Seahawks takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +2.11 EP
  • 71% chance to miss: Seattle Seahawks takes over around their own 49, worth -2.47 EP
PUNT -0.19 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Seattle Seahawks would take over around their own 15, worth -0.19 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model