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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Seattle Seahawks 4th & 2 at the 55

Seattle Seahawks 34 – Atlanta Falcons 14

What Actually Happened

(3:44) 4-M.Dickson punts 42 yards to ATL 13, Center-41-C.Stoll, fair catch by 26-A.Williams.

The Three Options

GO +0.39 EP
Model's Pick
  • 62% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 53, worth +1.99 EP
  • 38% chance to fail: Atlanta Falcons takes over around their own 55, worth -2.19 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (72 yards).

PUNT -0.55 EP
What Happened
  • Atlanta Falcons would take over around their own 16, worth -0.55 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.93 EP