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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Seattle Seahawks 4th & 1 at the 44

Seattle Seahawks 17 – Atlanta Falcons 14

What Actually Happened

(5:03) 26-Z.Charbonnet up the middle to ATL 37 for 7 yards (24-A.Terrell).

The Three Options

GO +1.44 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 71% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 43, worth +3.01 EP
  • 29% chance to fail: Atlanta Falcons takes over around their own 44, worth -2.38 EP
KICK -0.59 EP
  • 51% chance to make a 61-yard field goal: 3 points, then Atlanta Falcons takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.53 EP
  • 49% chance to miss: Atlanta Falcons takes over around their own 49, worth -2.83 EP
PUNT -0.39 EP
  • Atlanta Falcons would take over around their own 12, worth -0.39 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model