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Tampa Bay Buccaneers

HC Todd Bowles
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Atlanta Falcons

HC Raheem Morris
Thursday 2024-10-03 · 20:15 Mercedes-Benz Stadium, Atlanta US 🏟 Dome Spread 2.5 O/U 44.0

Win Probability

TB
53.8%
ATL
46.2%
🏟 Dome

Confidence: <strong>coin flip</strong> Bands are honesty-checked against held-out seasons, not a feeling about this game — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Key Insights

  • ATL offense: -0.087 EPA/play over its last 8 games (22nd in the league)
  • TB offense: +0.025 EPA/play over its last 8 games (15th in the league)
  • Indoors — weather neutralised
  • Baker Mayfield (TB): +0.132 EPA/dropback in prior starts

Predicted Final Score

TB 24
–
ATL 22
Projected margin: TB by 2 Projected total: 46

Typical error on unseen games: ±10.2 pts on margin, ±10.7 pts on total (held-out 2025). Treat this as a range, not a prediction to the point — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Injury Report — Week 5

TB

Calijah Kancey DT Out Calf
Jalen McMillan WR Out Hamstring
Trey Palmer WR Out Concussion
Luke Goedeke G Out Concussion
Antoine Winfield S Out Foot

ATL

Troy Andersen LB Out Knee
Jase McClellan RB Questionable Illness

Pulled fresh for 2024 week 5 specifically, not a cached snapshot — this changes every week as new reports come in.

Actual Result

TB 30
–
ATL 36

Prediction missed by 8 pts on margin, 20 pts on total.

Scoring Summary

  • Q1 12:01 TD ATL (12:01) (Shotgun) 18-K.Cousins pass short left to 5-D.London for 18 yards, TOUCHDOWN. TB 0 – ATL 6
  • Q1 07:40 TD TB (7:40) 6-B.Mayfield pass short middle to 13-M.Evans for 2 yards, TOUCHDOWN. TB 6 – ATL 7
  • Q1 01:27 FG TB (1:27) 4-C.McLaughlin 53 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-45-Z.Triner, Holder-16-T.Gill. TB 10 – ATL 7
  • Q2 12:04 TD ATL (12:04) (Shotgun) 18-K.Cousins pass deep middle to 1-D.Mooney for 24 yards, TOUCHDOWN. TB 10 – ATL 13
  • Q2 10:22 TD TB (10:22) (Shotgun) 6-B.Mayfield pass deep left to 13-M.Evans for 23 yards, TOUCHDOWN. TB 16 – ATL 14
  • Q2 06:22 FG ATL (6:22) 6-Y.Koo 54 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-L.McCullough, Holder-13-B.Pinion. TB 17 – ATL 17
  • Q2 02:00 TD TB (2:00) (Shotgun) 6-B.Mayfield pass short right to 17-S.Shepard for 4 yards, TOUCHDOWN. TB 23 – ATL 17
  • Q3 06:26 FG ATL (6:26) 6-Y.Koo 48 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-L.McCullough, Holder-13-B.Pinion. TB 24 – ATL 20
  • Q3 01:20 FG TB (1:20) 4-C.McLaughlin 32 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-45-Z.Triner, Holder-16-T.Gill. TB 27 – ATL 20
  • Q4 13:25 TD ATL (13:25) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 18-K.Cousins pass short left to 1-D.Mooney for 12 yards, TOUCHDOWN. TB 27 – ATL 26
  • Q4 10:28 FG TB (10:28) 4-C.McLaughlin 53 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-45-Z.Triner, Holder-16-T.Gill. TB 30 – ATL 27
  • Q4 00:01 FG ATL (:01) 6-Y.Koo 52 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-L.McCullough, Holder-13-B.Pinion. TB 30 – ATL 30
  • Q5 08:54 TD ATL (8:54) (Shotgun) 18-K.Cousins pass short right to 12-K.Hodge for 45 yards, TOUCHDOWN. TB 30 – ATL 36

Fourth-Down Decisions

  • Q1 ATL 4th & 9 at the 23
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 30% p(FG) 90%

    (3:34) 6-Y.Koo 41 yard field goal is No Good, Wide Left, Center-49-L.McCullough, Holder-13-B.Pinion.

  • Q1 TB 4th & 3 at the 35
    Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.69 EP
    p(convert) 52% p(FG) 73%

    (1:27) 4-C.McLaughlin 53 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-45-Z.Triner, Holder-16-T.Gill.

  • Q2 ATL 4th & 8 at the 36
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 33% p(FG) 70%

    (6:22) 6-Y.Koo 54 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-L.McCullough, Holder-13-B.Pinion.

  • Q2 ATL 4th & 18 at the 39
    Chose PUNT Model wanted KICK instead — cost +1.25 EP
    p(convert) 23% p(FG) 64%

    (:19) 13-B.Pinion punts 35 yards to TB 4, Center-49-L.McCullough, fair catch by 19-K.Johnson. ** Injury Update: TB-19-K.Johnson has returned to the game. ** Injury Update: TB-0-Y.Diaby has returned to the game.

  • Q3 TB 4th & 12 at the 65
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 33%

    (12:16) 16-T.Gill punts 45 yards to ATL 20, Center-45-Z.Triner, fair catch by 26-A.Williams.

  • Q3 ATL 4th & 3 at the 42
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 50% p(FG) 56%

    (10:07) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 18-K.Cousins pass short left to 1-D.Mooney pushed ob at TB 28 for 14 yards (35-J.Dean).

  • Q3 TB 4th & 10 at the 14
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 30% p(FG) 96%

    (1:20) 4-C.McLaughlin 32 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-45-Z.Triner, Holder-16-T.Gill.

  • Q4 ATL 4th & 4 at the 12
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 41% p(FG) 97%

    (13:25) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 18-K.Cousins pass short left to 1-D.Mooney for 12 yards, TOUCHDOWN.

  • Q4 TB 4th & 6 at the 35
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 40% p(FG) 73%

    (10:28) 4-C.McLaughlin 53 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-45-Z.Triner, Holder-16-T.Gill.

  • Q4 ATL 4th & 6 at the 36
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 38% p(FG) 70%

    (6:37) 6-Y.Koo 54 yard field goal is BLOCKED (37-T.Thomas), Center-49-L.McCullough, Holder-13-B.Pinion.

  • Q4 ATL 4th & 15 at the 80 late-game
    Chose GO Model wanted PUNT instead — cost +0.91 EP
    p(convert) 29%

    (1:52) (Shotgun) 18-K.Cousins pass short right intended for 1-D.Mooney INTERCEPTED by 54-L.David at ATL 35. 54-L.David to ATL 28 for 7 yards (25-T.Allgeier).