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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Atlanta Falcons 4th & 9 at the 23

Atlanta Falcons 7 – Tampa Bay Buccaneers 7

What Actually Happened

(3:34) 6-Y.Koo 41 yard field goal is No Good, Wide Left, Center-49-L.McCullough, Holder-13-B.Pinion.

The Three Options

GO +1.16 EP
  • 30% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 14, worth +5.25 EP
  • 70% chance to fail: Tampa Bay Buccaneers takes over around their own 23, worth -0.61 EP
KICK +1.62 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 90% chance to make a 40-yard field goal: 3 points, then Tampa Bay Buccaneers takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.94 EP
  • 10% chance to miss: Tampa Bay Buccaneers takes over around their own 33, worth -1.32 EP
PUNT +0.14 EP
  • Tampa Bay Buccaneers would take over around their own 11, worth +0.14 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model