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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Atlanta Falcons 4th & 4 at the 12

Atlanta Falcons 20 – Tampa Bay Buccaneers 27

What Actually Happened

(13:25) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 18-K.Cousins pass short left to 1-D.Mooney for 12 yards, TOUCHDOWN.

The Three Options

GO +2.18 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 41% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 8, worth +5.45 EP
  • 59% chance to fail: Tampa Bay Buccaneers takes over around their own 12, worth -0.13 EP
KICK +1.67 EP
  • 97% chance to make a 29-yard field goal: 3 points, then Tampa Bay Buccaneers takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.76 EP
  • 3% chance to miss: Tampa Bay Buccaneers takes over around their own 22, worth -0.78 EP
PUNT +0.01 EP
  • Tampa Bay Buccaneers would take over around their own 11, worth +0.01 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model