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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Atlanta Falcons 4th & 15 at the 80

Atlanta Falcons 27 – Tampa Bay Buccaneers 30

What Actually Happened

(1:52) (Shotgun) 18-K.Cousins pass short right intended for 1-D.Mooney INTERCEPTED by 54-L.David at ATL 35. 54-L.David to ATL 28 for 7 yards (25-T.Allgeier).

The Three Options

GO -2.23 EP
What Happened
  • 29% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 65, worth +1.12 EP
  • 71% chance to fail: Tampa Bay Buccaneers takes over around their own 80, worth -3.61 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (97 yards).

PUNT -1.32 EP
Model's Pick
  • Tampa Bay Buccaneers would take over around their own 37, worth -1.32 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO Model wanted PUNT instead — cost +0.91 EP