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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Tampa Bay Buccaneers 4th & 3 at the 35

Tampa Bay Buccaneers 7 – Atlanta Falcons 7

What Actually Happened

(1:27) 4-C.McLaughlin 53 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-45-Z.Triner, Holder-16-T.Gill.

The Three Options

GO +0.95 EP
Model's Pick
  • 52% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 32, worth +3.67 EP
  • 48% chance to fail: Atlanta Falcons takes over around their own 35, worth -1.96 EP
KICK +0.26 EP
What Happened
  • 73% chance to make a 52-yard field goal: 3 points, then Atlanta Falcons takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.34 EP
  • 27% chance to miss: Atlanta Falcons takes over around their own 45, worth -2.58 EP
PUNT -0.31 EP
  • Atlanta Falcons would take over around their own 11, worth -0.31 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.69 EP