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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Atlanta Falcons 4th & 18 at the 39

Atlanta Falcons 17 – Tampa Bay Buccaneers 24

What Actually Happened

(:19) 13-B.Pinion punts 35 yards to TB 4, Center-49-L.McCullough, fair catch by 19-K.Johnson. ** Injury Update: TB-19-K.Johnson has returned to the game. ** Injury Update: TB-0-Y.Diaby has returned to the game.

The Three Options

GO +0.13 EP
  • 23% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 21, worth +3.40 EP
  • 77% chance to fail: Tampa Bay Buccaneers takes over around their own 39, worth -0.84 EP
KICK +1.18 EP
Model's Pick
  • 64% chance to make a 56-yard field goal: 3 points, then Tampa Bay Buccaneers takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +2.62 EP
  • 36% chance to miss: Tampa Bay Buccaneers takes over around their own 48, worth -1.34 EP
PUNT -0.07 EP
What Happened
  • Tampa Bay Buccaneers would take over around their own 11, worth -0.07 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted KICK instead — cost +1.25 EP