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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Atlanta Falcons 4th & 6 at the 36

Atlanta Falcons 27 – Tampa Bay Buccaneers 30

What Actually Happened

(6:37) 6-Y.Koo 54 yard field goal is BLOCKED (37-T.Thomas), Center-49-L.McCullough, Holder-13-B.Pinion.

The Three Options

GO +0.48 EP
  • 38% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 30, worth +3.77 EP
  • 62% chance to fail: Tampa Bay Buccaneers takes over around their own 36, worth -1.53 EP
KICK +0.60 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 70% chance to make a 53-yard field goal: 3 points, then Tampa Bay Buccaneers takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.76 EP
  • 30% chance to miss: Tampa Bay Buccaneers takes over around their own 46, worth -2.17 EP
PUNT -0.23 EP
  • Tampa Bay Buccaneers would take over around their own 11, worth -0.23 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model