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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Tampa Bay Buccaneers 4th & 12 at the 65

Tampa Bay Buccaneers 24 – Atlanta Falcons 17

What Actually Happened

(12:16) 16-T.Gill punts 45 yards to ATL 20, Center-45-Z.Triner, fair catch by 26-A.Williams.

The Three Options

GO -1.69 EP
  • 33% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 53, worth +2.63 EP
  • 67% chance to fail: Atlanta Falcons takes over around their own 65, worth -3.80 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (82 yards).

PUNT -1.12 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Atlanta Falcons would take over around their own 23, worth -1.12 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model