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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Tampa Bay Buccaneers 4th & 10 at the 14

Tampa Bay Buccaneers 24 – Atlanta Falcons 20

What Actually Happened

(1:20) 4-C.McLaughlin 32 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-45-Z.Triner, Holder-16-T.Gill.

The Three Options

GO +1.46 EP
Model's Pick
  • 30% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 4, worth +5.90 EP
  • 70% chance to fail: Atlanta Falcons takes over around their own 14, worth -0.42 EP
KICK +1.43 EP
What Happened
  • 96% chance to make a 31-yard field goal: 3 points, then Atlanta Falcons takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.54 EP
  • 4% chance to miss: Atlanta Falcons takes over around their own 24, worth -1.16 EP
PUNT -0.16 EP
  • Atlanta Falcons would take over around their own 11, worth -0.16 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model