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New York Giants

2-3 HC Brian Daboll
@
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Seattle Seahawks

3-2 HC Mike Macdonald
Sunday 2024-10-06 · 16:25 ET Lumen Field, Seattle US ☀️ Clear Spread 7.0 O/U 42.5

Win Probability

NYG
33.9%
SEA
66.1%
☀️ Clear

Confidence: clear edge Bands are honesty-checked against held-out seasons, not a feeling about this game — see the full track record.

Key Insights

  • NYG offense: -0.084 EPA/play over its last 8 games (21st in the league)
  • SEA defense: +0.056 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (24th in the league)
  • Daniel Jones (NYG): -0.153 EPA/dropback in prior starts
  • SEA offense: +0.072 EPA/play over its last 8 games (8th in the league)
  • NYG on 4 more days rest than SEA

New to these stats? NFL 101 Glossary →

Predicted Final Score

NYG 21 14–28
–
SEA 25 18–32
Projected margin: SEA by 4 Projected total: 46

The range under each score is this model's typical error on unseen games — ±10.2 pts on margin, ±10.7 pts on total (held-out 2025). Treat the bigger number as the middle of that range, not a precise call — see the full track record.

Injury Report — Week 5

NYG

Malik Nabers WR Out Concussion
Devin Singletary RB Doubtful Groin
Matthew Adams LB Questionable Quadricep
Adoree' Jackson CB Questionable Calf
Andru Phillips CB Questionable Calf

SEA

Byron Murphy DT Out Hamstring
Cameron Young DT Out Knee
Julian Love S Questionable Thigh
Boye Mafe LB Questionable Knee

Pulled fresh for 2024 week 5 specifically, not a cached snapshot — this changes every week as new reports come in.

Actual Result

NYG 29
–
SEA 20

Prediction missed by 13 pts on margin, 3 pts on total.

Scoring Summary

  • Q1 02:33 TD SEA (2:33) 20-E.Gray right guard to SEA 1 for no gain (17-J.Baker; 20-J.Love). FUMBLES (17-J.Baker), RECOVERED by SEA-2-R.Jenkins at SEA -2. 2-R.Jenkins for 102 yards, TOUCHDOWN. The Replay Official reviewed the runner was not down by contact ruling, and the play was Upheld. The ruling on the field stands. NYG 0 – SEA 6
  • Q2 09:15 TD NYG (9:15) 8-D.Jones pass short left to 17-W.Robinson for 7 yards, TOUCHDOWN. NYG 6 – SEA 7
  • Q2 00:25 FG NYG (:25) 34-G.Joseph 38 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-59-C.Kreiter, Holder-6-J.Gillan. NYG 10 – SEA 7
  • Q2 00:06 FG SEA (:06) 5-J.Myers 43 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-41-C.Stoll, Holder-4-M.Dickson. NYG 10 – SEA 10
  • Q3 10:47 TD NYG (10:47) (Shotgun) 8-D.Jones pass deep left to 86-D.Slayton for 30 yards, TOUCHDOWN. NYG 16 – SEA 10
  • Q3 06:38 FG SEA (6:38) 5-J.Myers 48 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-41-C.Stoll, Holder-4-M.Dickson. NYG 17 – SEA 13
  • Q3 00:49 FG NYG (:49) 34-G.Joseph 31 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-59-C.Kreiter, Holder-6-J.Gillan. NYG 20 – SEA 13
  • Q4 11:57 FG NYG (11:57) 34-G.Joseph 24 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-59-C.Kreiter, Holder-6-J.Gillan. NYG 23 – SEA 13
  • Q4 02:13 TD SEA (2:13) (Shotgun) 7-G.Smith pass short middle to 11-J.Smith-Njigba for 5 yards, TOUCHDOWN [94-E.Chatman]. NYG 23 – SEA 19
  • Q4 01:05 TD NYG (1:05) 5-J.Myers 47 yard field goal is BLOCKED (19-I.Simmons), Center-41-C.Stoll, Holder-4-M.Dickson, RECOVERED by NYG-88-B.Ford-Wheaton at NYG 40. 88-B.Ford-Wheaton for 60 yards, TOUCHDOWN. NYG 29 – SEA 20

Fourth-Down Decisions

  • Q1 SEA 4th & 4 at the 50
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.52 EP
    p(convert) 50% p(FG) 34%

    (12:23) 4-M.Dickson punts 50 yards to end zone, Center-41-C.Stoll, Touchback.

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q1 NYG 4th & 1 at the 1
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 64% p(FG) 99%

    (2:33) 20-E.Gray right guard to SEA 1 for no gain (17-J.Baker; 20-J.Love). FUMBLES (17-J.Baker), RECOVERED by SEA-2-R.Jenkins at SEA -2. 2-R.Jenkins for 102 yards, TOUCHDOWN. The Replay Official reviewed the runner was not down by contact ruling, and the play was Upheld. The ruling on the field stands.

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q1 NYG 4th & 2 at the 68
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.55 EP
    p(convert) 61%

    (:03) 6-J.Gillan punts 46 yards to SEA 22, Center-59-C.Kreiter, fair catch by 33-D.Williams.

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q2 SEA 4th & 8 at the 76
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 41%

    (13:43) 4-M.Dickson punts 55 yards to NYG 21, Center-41-C.Stoll. 87-I.Smith-Marsette to NYG 19 for -2 yards (22-T.Brown).

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q2 SEA 4th & 16 at the 54
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 28%

    (5:44) 4-M.Dickson punts 40 yards to NYG 14, Center-41-C.Stoll. 87-I.Smith-Marsette to NYG 22 for 8 yards (19-J.Bobo, 86-P.Brown).

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q2 NYG 4th & 2 at the 20
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 55% p(FG) 92%

    (:25) 34-G.Joseph 38 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-59-C.Kreiter, Holder-6-J.Gillan.

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q3 NYG 4th & 5 at the 65
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 45%

    (13:30) 6-J.Gillan punts 36 yards to SEA 29, Center-59-C.Kreiter, fair catch by 33-D.Williams.

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q3 SEA 4th & 7 at the 29
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 38% p(FG) 82%

    (6:38) 5-J.Myers 48 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-41-C.Stoll, Holder-4-M.Dickson.

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q3 NYG 4th & 11 at the 13
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 27% p(FG) 96%

    (:49) 34-G.Joseph 31 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-59-C.Kreiter, Holder-6-J.Gillan.

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q4 SEA 4th & 1 at the 65
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 73%

    (14:13) 7-G.Smith sacked at SEA 27 for -8 yards (0-B.Burns).

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q4 NYG 4th & 3 at the 6
    Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.28 EP
    p(convert) 46% p(FG) 98%

    (11:57) 34-G.Joseph 24 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-59-C.Kreiter, Holder-6-J.Gillan.

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q4 SEA 4th & 16 at the 67
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 30%

    (9:40) 4-M.Dickson punts 48 yards to NYG 19, Center-41-C.Stoll, fair catch by 87-I.Smith-Marsette.

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q4 NYG 4th & 4 at the 64
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 49%

    (6:05) 6-J.Gillan punts 59 yards to SEA 5, Center-59-C.Kreiter, downed by NYG-24-D.Belton.

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q4 NYG 4th & 4 at the 72 late-game
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 50%

    (1:51) 6-J.Gillan punts 45 yards to SEA 27, Center-59-C.Kreiter. 33-D.Williams to SEA 34 for 7 yards (59-C.Kreiter).

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q4 SEA 4th & 4 at the 28 late-game
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 47% p(FG) 84%

    (1:05) 5-J.Myers 47 yard field goal is BLOCKED (19-I.Simmons), Center-41-C.Stoll, Holder-4-M.Dickson, RECOVERED by NYG-88-B.Ford-Wheaton at NYG 40. 88-B.Ford-Wheaton for 60 yards, TOUCHDOWN.

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q4 SEA 4th & 3 at the 63 late-game
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 56%

    (:17) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 7-G.Smith sacked at SEA 28 for -9 yards (97-D.Lawrence).

    See the full breakdown →