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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 New York Giants 4th & 1 at the 1

New York Giants 0 – Seattle Seahawks 0

What Actually Happened

(2:33) 20-E.Gray right guard to SEA 1 for no gain (17-J.Baker; 20-J.Love). FUMBLES (17-J.Baker), RECOVERED by SEA-2-R.Jenkins at SEA -2. 2-R.Jenkins for 102 yards, TOUCHDOWN. The Replay Official reviewed the runner was not down by contact ruling, and the play was Upheld. The ruling on the field stands.

The Three Options

GO +3.37 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 64% chance to convert, and it's a touchdown from here: worth +5.26 EP
  • 36% chance to fail: Seattle Seahawks takes over around their own 1, worth +0.03 EP
KICK +1.29 EP
  • 99% chance to make a 18-yard field goal: 3 points, then Seattle Seahawks takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.32 EP
  • 1% chance to miss: Seattle Seahawks takes over around their own 21, worth -1.03 EP
PUNT -0.38 EP
  • Seattle Seahawks would take over around their own 11, worth -0.38 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model