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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 New York Giants 4th & 11 at the 13

New York Giants 17 – Seattle Seahawks 13

What Actually Happened

(:49) 34-G.Joseph 31 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-59-C.Kreiter, Holder-6-J.Gillan.

The Three Options

GO +1.42 EP
  • 27% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 2, worth +6.19 EP
  • 73% chance to fail: Seattle Seahawks takes over around their own 13, worth -0.36 EP
KICK +1.45 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 96% chance to make a 30-yard field goal: 3 points, then Seattle Seahawks takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.56 EP
  • 4% chance to miss: Seattle Seahawks takes over around their own 23, worth -1.02 EP
PUNT -0.17 EP
  • Seattle Seahawks would take over around their own 11, worth -0.17 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model