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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Seattle Seahawks 4th & 4 at the 28

Seattle Seahawks 20 – New York Giants 23

What Actually Happened

(1:05) 5-J.Myers 47 yard field goal is BLOCKED (19-I.Simmons), Center-41-C.Stoll, Holder-4-M.Dickson, RECOVERED by NYG-88-B.Ford-Wheaton at NYG 40. 88-B.Ford-Wheaton for 60 yards, TOUCHDOWN.

The Three Options

GO +1.20 EP
  • 47% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 24, worth +3.26 EP
  • 53% chance to fail: New York Giants takes over around their own 28, worth -0.59 EP
KICK +1.79 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 84% chance to make a 45-yard field goal: 3 points, then New York Giants takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +2.34 EP
  • 16% chance to miss: New York Giants takes over around their own 38, worth -0.96 EP
PUNT -0.16 EP
  • New York Giants would take over around their own 11, worth -0.16 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model