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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Seattle Seahawks 4th & 4 at the 50

Seattle Seahawks 0 – New York Giants 0

What Actually Happened

(12:23) 4-M.Dickson punts 50 yards to end zone, Center-41-C.Stoll, Touchback.

The Three Options

GO +0.38 EP
Model's Pick
  • 50% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 46, worth +3.37 EP
  • 50% chance to fail: New York Giants takes over around their own 50, worth -2.55 EP
KICK -1.01 EP
  • 34% chance to make a 67-yard field goal: 3 points, then New York Giants takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +2.03 EP
  • 66% chance to miss: New York Giants takes over around their own 49, worth -2.55 EP
PUNT -0.14 EP
What Happened
  • New York Giants would take over around their own 14, worth -0.14 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.52 EP