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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 New York Giants 4th & 2 at the 68

New York Giants 0 – Seattle Seahawks 7

What Actually Happened

(:03) 6-J.Gillan punts 46 yards to SEA 22, Center-59-C.Kreiter, fair catch by 33-D.Williams.

The Three Options

GO -0.74 EP
Model's Pick
  • 61% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 66, worth +1.32 EP
  • 39% chance to fail: Seattle Seahawks takes over around their own 68, worth -3.98 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (85 yards).

PUNT -1.29 EP
What Happened
  • Seattle Seahawks would take over around their own 26, worth -1.29 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.55 EP