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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Seattle Seahawks 4th & 7 at the 29

Seattle Seahawks 10 – New York Giants 17

What Actually Happened

(6:38) 5-J.Myers 48 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-41-C.Stoll, Holder-4-M.Dickson.

The Three Options

GO +1.05 EP
  • 38% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 22, worth +4.63 EP
  • 62% chance to fail: New York Giants takes over around their own 29, worth -1.10 EP
KICK +1.19 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 82% chance to make a 46-yard field goal: 3 points, then New York Giants takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.87 EP
  • 18% chance to miss: New York Giants takes over around their own 39, worth -1.88 EP
PUNT +0.15 EP
  • New York Giants would take over around their own 11, worth +0.15 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model