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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 New York Giants 4th & 2 at the 20

New York Giants 7 – Seattle Seahawks 7

What Actually Happened

(:25) 34-G.Joseph 38 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-59-C.Kreiter, Holder-6-J.Gillan.

The Three Options

GO +2.16 EP
Model's Pick
  • 55% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 18, worth +4.27 EP
  • 45% chance to fail: Seattle Seahawks takes over around their own 20, worth -0.42 EP
KICK +2.06 EP
What Happened
  • 92% chance to make a 37-yard field goal: 3 points, then Seattle Seahawks takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +2.30 EP
  • 8% chance to miss: Seattle Seahawks takes over around their own 30, worth -0.79 EP
PUNT -0.16 EP
  • Seattle Seahawks would take over around their own 11, worth -0.16 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model