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MIA Away

Miami Dolphins

HC Mike McDaniel
@
NE Home

New England Patriots

HC Jerod Mayo
Sunday 2024-10-06 · 13:00 Gillette Stadium, Foxborough US ☀️ Clear Spread -2.0 O/U 37.0

Win Probability

MIA
34.7%
NE
65.3%
☀️ Clear

Confidence: <strong>clear edge</strong> Bands are honesty-checked against held-out seasons, not a feeling about this game — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Key Insights

  • MIA offense: -0.199 EPA/play over its last 8 games (31st in the league)
  • NE offense: -0.255 EPA/play over its last 8 games (32nd in the league)
  • MIA defense: +0.095 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (29th in the league)
  • QB edge to NE: Jacoby Brissett (NE) -0.010 vs Tyler Huntley (MIA) -0.109 EPA/dropback
  • NE defense: -0.047 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (12th in the league)

Predicted Final Score

MIA 20
–
NE 24
Projected margin: NE by 4 Projected total: 44

Typical error on unseen games: ±10.2 pts on margin, ±10.7 pts on total (held-out 2025). Treat this as a range, not a prediction to the point — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Injury Report — Week 5

MIA

Jordan Poyer S Out Shin
Odell Beckham WR Questionable Knee
Cam Smith CB Questionable Hamstring
Skylar Thompson QB Questionable Ribs

NE

Sione Takitaki LB Doubtful Knee
Kyle Dugger S Questionable Ankle
K.J. Osborn WR Questionable Shoulder
Kendrick Bourne WR Questionable Knee
Anfernee Jennings LB Questionable Shoulder
Jonathan Jones CB Questionable Shoulder
Marcus Jones CB Questionable Groin
Michael Jordan G Questionable Ankle
Nick Leverett C Questionable Ankle
Vederian Lowe T Questionable Knee
Marte Mapu S Questionable Calf
Jabrill Peppers S Questionable Shoulder
Layden Robinson G Questionable Ankle

Pulled fresh for 2024 week 5 specifically, not a cached snapshot — this changes every week as new reports come in.

Actual Result

MIA 15
–
NE 10

Prediction missed by 9 pts on margin, 19 pts on total.

Scoring Summary

  • Q1 10:44 FG MIA (10:44) 7-J.Sanders 54 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-48-B.Ferguson, Holder-16-J.Bailey. MIA 3 – NE 0
  • Q1 04:04 TD NE (4:04) 38-R.Stevenson right end for 33 yards, TOUCHDOWN. MIA 3 – NE 6
  • Q3 11:04 FG NE (11:04) 13-J.Slye 38 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-J.Cardona, Holder-17-B.Baringer. MIA 3 – NE 10
  • Q3 07:50 FG MIA (7:50) 7-J.Sanders 32 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-48-B.Ferguson, Holder-16-J.Bailey. MIA 6 – NE 10
  • Q3 00:35 FG MIA (:35) 7-J.Sanders 47 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-48-B.Ferguson, Holder-16-J.Bailey. MIA 9 – NE 10
  • Q4 04:27 TD MIA (4:27) 30-A.Ingold up the middle for 3 yards, TOUCHDOWN. MIA 15 – NE 10

Fourth-Down Decisions

  • Q1 MIA 4th & 4 at the 36
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 42% p(FG) 69%

    (10:44) 7-J.Sanders 54 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-48-B.Ferguson, Holder-16-J.Bailey.

  • Q1 NE 4th & 15 at the 75
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 27%

    (8:35) 17-B.Baringer punts 53 yards to MIA 22, Center-49-J.Cardona, fair catch by 0-B.Berrios. NE 17-Baringer 22nd consecutive game with a 50-yd punt, longest active streak in NFL.

  • Q1 MIA 4th & 11 at the 23
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 26% p(FG) 90%

    (:02) 7-J.Sanders 41 yard field goal is No Good, Hit Left Upright, Center-48-B.Ferguson, Holder-16-J.Bailey.

  • Q2 NE 4th & 10 at the 69
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 32%

    (13:01) 17-B.Baringer punts 69 yards to end zone, Center-49-J.Cardona, Touchback.

  • Q2 MIA 4th & 11 at the 69
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 30%

    (10:40) 16-J.Bailey punt is BLOCKED by 41-B.Schooler, Center-48-B.Ferguson, recovered by MIA-16-J.Bailey at MIA 21. 16-J.Bailey to MIA 23 for 2 yards (15-M.Mapu; 24-D.Pettus). FUMBLES (15-M.Mapu), RECOVERED by NE-29-I.Bolden at MIA 23.

  • Q2 NE 4th & 14 at the 15
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 22% p(FG) 95%

    (6:12) 13-J.Slye 33 yard field goal is No Good, Wide Right, Center-49-J.Cardona, Holder-17-B.Baringer.

  • Q2 NE 4th & 2 at the 87
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 61%

    (1:02) 17-B.Baringer punts 43 yards to MIA 44, Center-49-J.Cardona. 0-B.Berrios pushed ob at NE 44 for 12 yards (53-C.Elliss).

  • Q2 MIA 4th & 15 at the 33
    Chose GO Model wanted KICK instead — cost +1.09 EP
    p(convert) 23% p(FG) 76%

    (:32) (Field Goal formation) 16-J.Bailey Aborted. 48-B.Ferguson FUMBLES at NE 38, recovered by MIA-7-J.Sanders at NE 41. 7-J.Sanders to NE 42 for -1 yards (21-J.Hawkins).

  • Q2 NE 4th & 5 at the 53
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 41% p(FG) 28%

    (:16) 17-B.Baringer punts 53 yards to end zone, Center-49-J.Cardona, Touchback.

  • Q3 NE 4th & 8 at the 20
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 30% p(FG) 92%

    (11:04) 13-J.Slye 38 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-J.Cardona, Holder-17-B.Baringer.

  • Q3 MIA 4th & 8 at the 14
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 29% p(FG) 96%

    (7:50) 7-J.Sanders 32 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-48-B.Ferguson, Holder-16-J.Bailey.

  • Q3 NE 4th & 3 at the 63
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 51%

    (5:52) 17-B.Baringer punts 49 yards to MIA 14, Center-49-J.Cardona, fair catch by 0-B.Berrios.

  • Q3 MIA 4th & 2 at the 29
    Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.63 EP
    p(convert) 53% p(FG) 82%

    (:35) 7-J.Sanders 47 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-48-B.Ferguson, Holder-16-J.Bailey.

  • Q4 NE 4th & 8 at the 43
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 33% p(FG) 52%

    (12:06) 17-B.Baringer punts 43 yards to end zone, Center-49-J.Cardona, Touchback.

  • Q4 NE 4th & 15 at the 17 late-game
    Chose GO Model wanted KICK instead — cost +1.21 EP
    p(convert) 22% p(FG) 94%

    (1:00) (Shotgun) 7-J.Brissett pass incomplete deep middle to 85-H.Henry.

  • Q4 MIA 4th & 1 at the 74 late-game
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 70%

    (:41) 16-J.Bailey punts 46 yards to NE 28, Center-48-B.Ferguson. 25-M.Jones pushed ob at NE 43 for 15 yards (80-T.Conner).