Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 New England Patriots 4th & 3 at the 63

New England Patriots 10 – Miami Dolphins 6

(5:52) 17-B.Baringer punts 49 yards to MIA 14, Center-49-J.Cardona, fair catch by 0-B.Berrios.

The Three Options

GO -0.66 EP

51% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 60, worth +2.10 EP
49% chance to fail: Miami Dolphins takes over around their own 63, worth -3.54 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (80 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model