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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 New England Patriots 4th & 15 at the 17

New England Patriots 10 – Miami Dolphins 15

What Actually Happened

(1:00) (Shotgun) 7-J.Brissett pass incomplete deep middle to 85-H.Henry.

The Three Options

GO +0.90 EP
What Happened
  • 22% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 2, worth +5.27 EP
  • 78% chance to fail: Miami Dolphins takes over around their own 17, worth -0.30 EP
KICK +2.11 EP
Model's Pick
  • 94% chance to make a 34-yard field goal: 3 points, then Miami Dolphins takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +2.28 EP
  • 6% chance to miss: Miami Dolphins takes over around their own 27, worth -0.65 EP
PUNT -0.11 EP
  • Miami Dolphins would take over around their own 11, worth -0.11 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO Model wanted KICK instead — cost +1.21 EP