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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 New England Patriots 4th & 5 at the 53

New England Patriots 7 – Miami Dolphins 3

What Actually Happened

(:16) 17-B.Baringer punts 53 yards to end zone, Center-49-J.Cardona, Touchback.

The Three Options

GO -0.19 EP
  • 41% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 48, worth +1.42 EP
  • 59% chance to fail: Miami Dolphins takes over around their own 53, worth -1.32 EP
KICK -0.05 EP
Model's Pick
  • 28% chance to make a 70-yard field goal: 3 points, then Miami Dolphins takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +2.74 EP
  • 72% chance to miss: Miami Dolphins takes over around their own 49, worth -1.12 EP
PUNT -0.07 EP
What Happened
  • Miami Dolphins would take over around their own 15, worth -0.07 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model