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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Miami Dolphins 4th & 2 at the 29

Miami Dolphins 6 – New England Patriots 10

What Actually Happened

(:35) 7-J.Sanders 47 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-48-B.Ferguson, Holder-16-J.Bailey.

The Three Options

GO +1.55 EP
Model's Pick
  • 53% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 27, worth +4.19 EP
  • 47% chance to fail: New England Patriots takes over around their own 29, worth -1.42 EP
KICK +0.91 EP
What Happened
  • 82% chance to make a 46-yard field goal: 3 points, then New England Patriots takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.56 EP
  • 18% chance to miss: New England Patriots takes over around their own 39, worth -2.09 EP
PUNT -0.16 EP
  • New England Patriots would take over around their own 11, worth -0.16 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.63 EP