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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Miami Dolphins 4th & 8 at the 14

Miami Dolphins 3 – New England Patriots 10

What Actually Happened

(7:50) 7-J.Sanders 32 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-48-B.Ferguson, Holder-16-J.Bailey.

The Three Options

GO +1.32 EP
  • 29% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 6, worth +5.52 EP
  • 71% chance to fail: New England Patriots takes over around their own 14, worth -0.38 EP
KICK +1.42 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 96% chance to make a 31-yard field goal: 3 points, then New England Patriots takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.53 EP
  • 4% chance to miss: New England Patriots takes over around their own 24, worth -1.13 EP
PUNT -0.15 EP
  • New England Patriots would take over around their own 11, worth -0.15 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model