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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Miami Dolphins 4th & 15 at the 33

Miami Dolphins 3 – New England Patriots 7

What Actually Happened

(:32) (Field Goal formation) 16-J.Bailey Aborted. 48-B.Ferguson FUMBLES at NE 38, recovered by MIA-7-J.Sanders at NE 41. 7-J.Sanders to NE 42 for -1 yards (21-J.Hawkins).

The Three Options

GO +0.34 EP
What Happened
  • 23% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 18, worth +4.31 EP
  • 77% chance to fail: New England Patriots takes over around their own 33, worth -0.82 EP
KICK +1.43 EP
Model's Pick
  • 76% chance to make a 50-yard field goal: 3 points, then New England Patriots takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +2.31 EP
  • 24% chance to miss: New England Patriots takes over around their own 43, worth -1.29 EP
PUNT -0.07 EP
  • New England Patriots would take over around their own 11, worth -0.07 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO Model wanted KICK instead — cost +1.09 EP