Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Miami Dolphins 4th & 1 at the 74

Miami Dolphins 15 – New England Patriots 10

(:41) 16-J.Bailey punts 46 yards to NE 28, Center-48-B.Ferguson. 25-M.Jones pushed ob at NE 43 for 15 yards (80-T.Conner).

The Three Options

GO -0.68 EP

70% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 73, worth +0.20 EP
30% chance to fail: New England Patriots takes over around their own 74, worth -2.67 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (91 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model