Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 New England Patriots 4th & 15 at the 75

New England Patriots 0 – Miami Dolphins 3

What Actually Happened

(8:35) 17-B.Baringer punts 53 yards to MIA 22, Center-49-J.Cardona, fair catch by 0-B.Berrios. NE 17-Baringer 22nd consecutive game with a 50-yd punt, longest active streak in NFL.

The Three Options

GO -2.36 EP

27% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 60, worth +2.41 EP
73% chance to fail: Miami Dolphins takes over around their own 75, worth -4.14 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (92 yards).

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model