4TH&DATA
EN ES
← Home
CAR Away

Carolina Panthers

HC Dave Canales
@
CHI Home

Chicago Bears

HC Matt Eberflus
Sunday 2024-10-06 · 13:00 Soldier Field, Chicago US ☀️ Clear Spread 4.0 O/U 40.0

Win Probability

CAR
36.7%
CHI
63.3%
☀️ Clear

Confidence: <strong>clear edge</strong> Bands are honesty-checked against held-out seasons, not a feeling about this game — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Key Insights

  • CAR offense: -0.178 EPA/play over its last 8 games (29th in the league)
  • Caleb Williams (CHI): -0.246 EPA/dropback in prior starts
  • CHI defense: -0.115 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (4th in the league)
  • CHI offense: -0.088 EPA/play over its last 8 games (23rd in the league)

Predicted Final Score

CAR 17
–
CHI 22
Projected margin: CHI by 5 Projected total: 39

Typical error on unseen games: ±10.2 pts on margin, ±10.7 pts on total (held-out 2025). Treat this as a range, not a prediction to the point — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Injury Report — Week 5

CAR

Josey Jewell LB Out Hamstring
Andrew Raym C Out Concussion
Shaq Thompson LB Out Achilles
Jalen Coker WR Questionable Foot
Charles Harris DE Questionable Shoulder
Robert Hunt G Questionable Hip
Dane Jackson CB Questionable Hamstring
Ian Thomas TE Questionable Calf
Shy Tuttle DT Questionable Foot

CHI

Zacch Pickens DT Out Groin
Terell Smith CB Out Hip
DeAndre Carter WR Questionable Ribs
Teven Jenkins T Questionable Ribs

Pulled fresh for 2024 week 5 specifically, not a cached snapshot — this changes every week as new reports come in.

Actual Result

CAR 10
–
CHI 36

Prediction missed by 21 pts on margin, 7 pts on total.

Scoring Summary

  • Q1 09:01 TD CAR (9:01) (Shotgun) 30-C.Hubbard left tackle for 38 yards, TOUCHDOWN. CAR 6 – CHI 0
  • Q1 05:52 TD CHI (5:52) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 18-C.Williams pass deep right to 2-D.Moore for 34 yards, TOUCHDOWN. CAR 7 – CHI 6
  • Q2 10:48 TD CHI (10:48) 68-D.Kramer reported in as eligible. 23-R.Johnson right guard for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. CAR 7 – CHI 13
  • Q2 02:17 TD CHI (2:17) 68-D.Kramer reported in as eligible. 4-D.Swift right guard for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. CAR 7 – CHI 20
  • Q2 00:30 TD CHI (:30) (Shotgun) 18-C.Williams pass deep left to 2-D.Moore for 30 yards, TOUCHDOWN. CAR 7 – CHI 27
  • Q3 06:29 FG CHI (6:29) 8-C.Santos 33 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-S.Daly, Holder-19-T.Taylor. CAR 7 – CHI 30
  • Q3 02:14 FG CAR (2:14) 4-E.Pineiro 27 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-44-J.Jansen, Holder-10-J.Hekker. CAR 10 – CHI 30
  • Q4 04:26 TD CHI (4:26) 68-D.Kramer reported in as eligible. 23-R.Johnson right tackle for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. Penalty on CHI-79-M.Pryor, Disqualification, offsetting. Penalty on CAR-8-J.Horn, Disqualification, offsetting. Penalty on CAR-52-Dj.Johnson, Unnecessary Roughness, offsetting. CAR 10 – CHI 36

Fourth-Down Decisions

  • Q1 CAR 4th & 5 at the 65
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 42%

    (13:32) 10-J.Hekker punts 47 yards to CHI 18, Center-44-J.Jansen, downed by CAR-48-T.Incoom.

  • Q1 CHI 4th & 15 at the 87
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 31%

    (11:51) 19-T.Taylor punts 49 yards to CAR 38, Center-46-S.Daly. 3-R.Blackshear to CAR 49 for 11 yards (22-E.Hicks, 57-J.Sanborn).

  • Q1 CAR 4th & 1 at the 42
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 65% p(FG) 50%

    (9:40) 5-Di.Johnson left end to CHI 38 for 4 yards (9-J.Brisker).

  • Q1 CAR 4th & 16 at the 65
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 24%

    (2:20) 10-J.Hekker punts 65 yards to end zone, Center-44-J.Jansen, Touchback.

  • Q2 CAR 4th & 5 at the 66
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 42%

    (8:31) 10-J.Hekker punts 47 yards to CHI 19, Center-44-J.Jansen. 11-D.Carter to CHI 25 for 6 yards (84-F.Franks).

  • Q2 CHI 4th & 1 at the 39
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 68% p(FG) 58%

    (4:23) 23-R.Johnson right tackle to CAR 39 for no gain (56-T.Wallace, 21-N.Scott).

  • Q2 CAR 4th & 3 at the 37
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 47% p(FG) 64%

    (1:00) (Shotgun) 14-A.Dalton pass incomplete short right to 5-Di.Johnson (29-T.Stevenson) [99-G.Dexter].

  • Q3 CHI 4th & 3 at the 63
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 54%

    (12:23) 19-T.Taylor punts 41 yards to CAR 22, Center-46-S.Daly, downed by CHI-22-E.Hicks.

  • Q3 CHI 4th & 15 at the 15
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 23% p(FG) 95%

    (6:29) 8-C.Santos 33 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-S.Daly, Holder-19-T.Taylor.

  • Q3 CAR 4th & 9 at the 9
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 26% p(FG) 97%

    (2:14) 4-E.Pineiro 27 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-44-J.Jansen, Holder-10-J.Hekker.

  • Q3 CHI 4th & 2 at the 62
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.34 EP
    p(convert) 60%

    (:41) 19-T.Taylor punts 48 yards to CAR 14, Center-46-S.Daly. 3-R.Blackshear to CAR 23 for 9 yards (39-J.Blackwell).

  • Q4 CAR 4th & 14 at the 47
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 24% p(FG) 37%

    (12:11) 10-J.Hekker punts 47 yards to end zone, Center-44-J.Jansen, Touchback.

  • Q4 CHI 4th & 6 at the 48
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 40% p(FG) 35%

    (8:53) 19-T.Taylor punts 40 yards to CAR 8, Center-46-S.Daly, fair catch by 83-D.Moore.

  • Q4 CAR 4th & 2 at the 8 late-game
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 50% p(FG) 98%

    (2:02) (Shotgun) 9-B.Young sacked at CHI 10 for -2 yards (94-A.Booker).