4TH&DATA
EN ES
Back to Game

Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Carolina Panthers 4th & 14 at the 47

Carolina Panthers 10 – Chicago Bears 30

What Actually Happened

(12:11) 10-J.Hekker punts 47 yards to end zone, Center-44-J.Jansen, Touchback.

The Three Options

GO -1.16 EP
  • 24% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 33, worth +3.42 EP
  • 76% chance to fail: Chicago Bears takes over around their own 47, worth -2.64 EP
KICK -1.21 EP
  • 37% chance to make a 64-yard field goal: 3 points, then Chicago Bears takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.39 EP
  • 63% chance to miss: Chicago Bears takes over around their own 49, worth -2.76 EP
PUNT -0.77 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Chicago Bears would take over around their own 13, worth -0.77 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model