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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Chicago Bears 4th & 1 at the 39

Chicago Bears 14 – Carolina Panthers 7

What Actually Happened

(4:23) 23-R.Johnson right tackle to CAR 39 for no gain (56-T.Wallace, 21-N.Scott).

The Three Options

GO +1.89 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 68% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 38, worth +3.58 EP
  • 32% chance to fail: Carolina Panthers takes over around their own 39, worth -1.73 EP
KICK -0.02 EP
  • 58% chance to make a 56-yard field goal: 3 points, then Carolina Panthers takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.81 EP
  • 42% chance to miss: Carolina Panthers takes over around their own 48, worth -2.60 EP
PUNT -0.24 EP
  • Carolina Panthers would take over around their own 11, worth -0.24 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model