Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Chicago Bears 4th & 15 at the 87

Chicago Bears 0 – Carolina Panthers 0

(11:51) 19-T.Taylor punts 49 yards to CAR 38, Center-46-S.Daly. 3-R.Blackshear to CAR 49 for 11 yards (22-E.Hicks, 57-J.Sanborn).

The Three Options

GO -2.94 EP

31% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 72, worth +1.56 EP
69% chance to fail: Carolina Panthers takes over around their own 87, worth -4.93 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (104 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model