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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Carolina Panthers 4th & 9 at the 9

Carolina Panthers 7 – Chicago Bears 30

What Actually Happened

(2:14) 4-E.Pineiro 27 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-44-J.Jansen, Holder-10-J.Hekker.

The Three Options

GO +1.14 EP
  • 26% chance to convert, and it's a touchdown from here: worth +5.28 EP
  • 74% chance to fail: Chicago Bears takes over around their own 9, worth -0.34 EP
KICK +1.27 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 97% chance to make a 26-yard field goal: 3 points, then Chicago Bears takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.34 EP
  • 3% chance to miss: Chicago Bears takes over around their own 21, worth -1.09 EP
PUNT -0.47 EP
  • Chicago Bears would take over around their own 11, worth -0.47 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model