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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Chicago Bears 4th & 6 at the 48

Chicago Bears 30 – Carolina Panthers 10

What Actually Happened

(8:53) 19-T.Taylor punts 40 yards to CAR 8, Center-46-S.Daly, fair catch by 83-D.Moore.

The Three Options

GO -0.22 EP
Model's Pick
  • 40% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 42, worth +2.92 EP
  • 60% chance to fail: Carolina Panthers takes over around their own 48, worth -2.32 EP
KICK -0.91 EP
  • 35% chance to make a 65-yard field goal: 3 points, then Carolina Panthers takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.84 EP
  • 65% chance to miss: Carolina Panthers takes over around their own 49, worth -2.38 EP
PUNT -0.22 EP
What Happened
  • Carolina Panthers would take over around their own 14, worth -0.22 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model