4TH&DATA
EN ES
Back to Game

Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Carolina Panthers 4th & 2 at the 8

Carolina Panthers 10 – Chicago Bears 36

What Actually Happened

(2:02) (Shotgun) 9-B.Young sacked at CHI 10 for -2 yards (94-A.Booker).

The Three Options

GO +2.16 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 50% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 6, worth +4.89 EP
  • 50% chance to fail: Chicago Bears takes over around their own 8, worth -0.53 EP
KICK +1.71 EP
  • 98% chance to make a 25-yard field goal: 3 points, then Chicago Bears takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.78 EP
  • 2% chance to miss: Chicago Bears takes over around their own 21, worth -0.86 EP
PUNT -0.57 EP
  • Chicago Bears would take over around their own 11, worth -0.57 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model