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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Carolina Panthers 4th & 3 at the 37

Carolina Panthers 7 – Chicago Bears 21

What Actually Happened

(1:00) (Shotgun) 14-A.Dalton pass incomplete short right to 5-Di.Johnson (29-T.Stevenson) [99-G.Dexter].

The Three Options

GO +0.86 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 47% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 34, worth +3.55 EP
  • 53% chance to fail: Chicago Bears takes over around their own 37, worth -1.48 EP
KICK +0.38 EP
  • 64% chance to make a 54-yard field goal: 3 points, then Chicago Bears takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.90 EP
  • 36% chance to miss: Chicago Bears takes over around their own 46, worth -2.28 EP
PUNT -0.03 EP
  • Chicago Bears would take over around their own 11, worth -0.03 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model