Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Carolina Panthers 4th & 5 at the 66

Carolina Panthers 7 – Chicago Bears 14

(8:31) 10-J.Hekker punts 47 yards to CHI 19, Center-44-J.Jansen. 11-D.Carter to CHI 25 for 6 yards (84-F.Franks).

The Three Options

GO -1.45 EP

42% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 61, worth +1.86 EP
58% chance to fail: Chicago Bears takes over around their own 66, worth -3.84 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (83 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model