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Chicago Bears

HC Matt Eberflus
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Indianapolis Colts

HC Shane Steichen
Sunday 2024-09-22 · 13:00 Lucas Oil Stadium, Indianapolis US 🏟 Dome Spread 1.5 O/U 43.0

Win Probability

CHI
34.4%
IND
65.6%
🏟 Dome

Confidence: <strong>clear edge</strong> Bands are honesty-checked against held-out seasons, not a feeling about this game — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Key Insights

  • QB edge to IND: Anthony Richardson (IND) -0.030 vs Caleb Williams (CHI) -0.444 EPA/dropback
  • CHI offense: -0.096 EPA/play over its last 8 games (22nd in the league)
  • CHI defense: -0.177 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (1st in the league)
  • Indoors — weather neutralised
  • IND defense: +0.037 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (23rd in the league)

Predicted Final Score

CHI 20
–
IND 23
Projected margin: IND by 3 Projected total: 43

Typical error on unseen games: ±10.2 pts on margin, ±10.7 pts on total (held-out 2025). Treat this as a range, not a prediction to the point — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Injury Report — Week 3

CHI

Keenan Allen WR Out Heel
Khari Blasingame FB Out Hand
Travis Homer RB Out Finger
Zacch Pickens DT Out Groin
Nate Davis G Questionable Groin

IND

Michael Pittman WR Questionable Back
Laiatu Latu DE Questionable Hip

Pulled fresh for 2024 week 3 specifically, not a cached snapshot — this changes every week as new reports come in.

Actual Result

CHI 16
–
IND 21

Prediction missed by 2 pts on margin, 6 pts on total.

Scoring Summary

  • Q2 08:26 TD IND (8:26) (Shotgun) 28-J.Taylor right guard for 29 yards, TOUCHDOWN. CHI 0 – IND 6
  • Q3 12:56 FG CHI (12:56) 8-C.Santos 53 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-S.Daly, Holder-19-T.Taylor. CHI 3 – IND 7
  • Q3 00:29 TD IND (:29) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 27-T.Sermon left guard for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. CHI 3 – IND 13
  • Q4 08:25 TD CHI (8:25) (Shotgun) 18-C.Williams pass short left to 15-R.Odunze for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. CHI 9 – IND 14
  • Q4 05:25 TD IND (5:25) (Shotgun) 28-J.Taylor left guard for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. CHI 9 – IND 20
  • Q4 02:05 TD CHI (2:05) (Shotgun) 18-C.Williams pass short right to 85-C.Kmet for 6 yards, TOUCHDOWN. ** Injury Update: CHI-2-D.Moore has returned to the game. CHI 15 – IND 21

Fourth-Down Decisions

  • Q1 CHI 4th & 1 at the 50
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 69% p(FG) 36%

    (11:49) 18-C.Williams pass short left to 2-D.Moore to IND 42 for 8 yards (40-J.Jones).

  • Q1 CHI 4th & 6 at the 38
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 38% p(FG) 66%

    (9:38) 8-C.Santos 56 yard field goal is No Good, Short, Center-46-S.Daly, Holder-19-T.Taylor.

  • Q1 IND 4th & 10 at the 54
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 32%

    (8:34) 8-R.Sanchez punts 44 yards to CHI 10, Center-46-L.Rhodes, fair catch by 11-D.Carter.

  • Q1 CHI 4th & 8 at the 53
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 36% p(FG) 29%

    (6:40) 19-T.Taylor punts 36 yards to IND 17, Center-46-S.Daly, fair catch by 6-A.Gould.

  • Q1 IND 4th & 8 at the 67
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 37%

    (3:16) 8-R.Sanchez punts 51 yards to CHI 16, Center-46-L.Rhodes. 11-D.Carter to CHI 14 for -2 yards (43-T.Denbow). CHI-32-T.Smith was injured during the play.

  • Q1 CHI 4th & 10 at the 74
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 35%

    (:07) 19-T.Taylor punts 54 yards to IND 20, Center-46-S.Daly. 6-A.Gould pushed ob at IND 39 for 19 yards (24-K.Herbert).

  • Q2 CHI 4th & 1 at the 5
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 64% p(FG) 98%

    (2:26) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 23-R.Johnson up the middle to IND 4 for 1 yard (90-G.Stewart; 98-R.Davis).

  • Q2 CHI 4th & 1 at the 1
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 64% p(FG) 99%

    (1:46) (Shotgun) 4-D.Swift left end to IND 13 for -12 yards (94-T.Lewis).

  • Q2 IND 4th & 3 at the 69
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 53%

    (:59) 8-R.Sanchez punts 51 yards to CHI 18, Center-46-L.Rhodes, fair catch by 11-D.Carter.

  • Q2 CHI 4th & 2 at the 45
    Chose GO Model wanted KICK instead — cost +0.69 EP
    p(convert) 58% p(FG) 49%

    (:01) (Shotgun) 18-C.Williams pass deep right to 2-D.Moore to IND 1 for 44 yards (32-J.Blackmon, 45-E.Speed).

  • Q3 CHI 4th & 7 at the 34
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 36% p(FG) 75%

    (12:56) 8-C.Santos 53 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-S.Daly, Holder-19-T.Taylor.

  • Q3 IND 4th & 4 at the 68
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 48%

    (11:29) 8-R.Sanchez punts 52 yards to CHI 16, Center-46-L.Rhodes, fair catch by 11-D.Carter.

  • Q3 IND 4th & 3 at the 38
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 49% p(FG) 66%

    (7:30) (Shotgun) 28-J.Taylor right guard to CHI 37 for 1 yard (95-D.Walker).

  • Q3 CHI 4th & 4 at the 57
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 48%

    (5:57) 19-T.Taylor punts 37 yards to IND 20, Center-46-S.Daly, out of bounds.

  • Q4 IND 4th & 10 at the 59
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 32%

    (7:03) 8-R.Sanchez punts 47 yards to CHI 12, Center-46-L.Rhodes. 11-D.Carter to CHI 18 for 6 yards (35-C.Lammons, 85-A.Ogletree).

  • Q4 CHI 4th & 1 at the 6 late-game
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 64% p(FG) 98%

    (2:05) (Shotgun) 18-C.Williams pass short right to 85-C.Kmet for 6 yards, TOUCHDOWN. ** Injury Update: CHI-2-D.Moore has returned to the game.