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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Chicago Bears 4th & 1 at the 50

Chicago Bears 0 – Indianapolis Colts 0

What Actually Happened

(11:49) 18-C.Williams pass short left to 2-D.Moore to IND 42 for 8 yards (40-J.Jones).

The Three Options

GO +0.78 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 69% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 49, worth +2.55 EP
  • 31% chance to fail: Indianapolis Colts takes over around their own 50, worth -3.20 EP
KICK -1.62 EP
  • 36% chance to make a 67-yard field goal: 3 points, then Indianapolis Colts takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.16 EP
  • 64% chance to miss: Indianapolis Colts takes over around their own 49, worth -3.20 EP
PUNT -0.87 EP
  • Indianapolis Colts would take over around their own 14, worth -0.87 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model