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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Chicago Bears 4th & 6 at the 38

Chicago Bears 0 – Indianapolis Colts 0

What Actually Happened

(9:38) 8-C.Santos 56 yard field goal is No Good, Short, Center-46-S.Daly, Holder-19-T.Taylor.

The Three Options

GO -0.02 EP
Model's Pick
  • 38% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 32, worth +3.72 EP
  • 62% chance to fail: Indianapolis Colts takes over around their own 38, worth -2.37 EP
KICK -0.18 EP
What Happened
  • 66% chance to make a 55-yard field goal: 3 points, then Indianapolis Colts takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.29 EP
  • 34% chance to miss: Indianapolis Colts takes over around their own 47, worth -3.02 EP
PUNT -0.48 EP
  • Indianapolis Colts would take over around their own 11, worth -0.48 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model